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Forex trading ni biashara inayoshangaza sana tena inaweza ikakuacha mdomo wazi kama ni mgeni kabisa. Kama unatabia ya kukimbizana na masoko au kusikiliza watu wengi kwa wakati mmoja wanasema nini kwenye mitandao ya kijamiii basi unaweza ukawa frustrated na trading.

Leo nitakupa somo moja ambalo linaweza likabadilisha maisha yako ya trading milele, na kama utaweza kuwa na nidhamu kufuatilia basi hili tatizo halitaweza kurudi kamwe.

Hii ni USD/CAD, ni pair yangu pendwa sana kwa sababu haijawahi kuniangusha. Ni pair iliyonipa profit kila ninapopata swing ndefu na inatembea sana. Toka mwezi umeanza pair hii imekuwa ikishuka na wale watu wote waliojaribu kununua wamejikuta wakila vitasa kila muda.

Ukipita kwenye mitandao ya kijamii na forums mbali mbali za trading kila analyst amekuwa akishauri watu the opposite, Kila mtu anasema buy na ukija kwenye chart unaweza kuona entry yangu ni tofauti na watu wanavyoshauri. Kwa akili ya kawaida hata mimi kwenye ugeni wangu ningeweza kununua hapo kwa sababu watu wengi wamesema kuna support. Ukweli ni kwamba sio kila support ina akisi fursa ya kununua na sio kila resistance ina akisi fursa ya kuuza. Ukifuata rules of nature lazima ununue kwenye support na kuuza kwenye resistance lakini mimi nimefanya opposite.

Kwa nini nimefanya opposite?

Kwa sababu trading plan yangu iliniongoza kuuza na si kununua. Ni rahisi sana kuvunja plan yako kwa sababu guru mmoja amedadisi au (analyze) tofauti na wewe ulivyo dadisi, newbie wengi wamekuwa sahihi sana lakini wanajikuta wanasaliti plan zao na kwenda kufanya alichosema online guru mmoja aliyesema buy USD/CAD na kuishia kupata hasara. Nakuambia ukiendeleza tabia hii unaweza ukajikuta unapoteza miaka na miaka ukifuata watu wanasema nini bila mafanikio yeyote.

Sisemi usisikilize mtu lakini linapokuja suala la trading decisions hakutakiwi kuwa na sauti ya mtu mwengine ila wewe mwenyewe na plan yako. Kama plan yako ni mbovu utafahamu hilo baada ya kutrade mara kadhaa na kupata report lakini ukianza kuchanganya trade za watu wengine basi unapoteza muda na huwezi kujifunza kamwe. Vile vile itakuwia vigumu sana kufanya evaluation kwa sababu matokeo yako hayana uhalisia wowote.

Nini Kilitokea?

Basi nikasell USD/CAD na kusubiri soko liendelee kufanya mambo yake na masaa machache mbele ikapatikana profit ya $700, tegemeo ni kwamba trade hii inaweza ikashuka na kuleta profit ya $3500.

Sasa najiuliza kama ningerudia makosa yangu ya zamani na kufuata ushauri wa kila guru aliyekuwa anasema BUY USD/CAD ningefanikiwa kupata faida? Unaweza jibu kwenye comment hapo chini.

Nini Cha Kujifunza?

Umati unaweza kukosea

Kamwe usije kudhani kwamba eti kwa sababu online gurus wamesuggest pair flani itakwenda juu basi haiwezi kushuka. Markets are dynamic and they change. No one can tell you where the market will go and be 100% sure. Kila trader anatakiwa kufocus na edge yake kwa sababu baada ya kipindi fulani ni rahisi sana kufanya progress evaluation na kuendelea mbele.

Sio kila support ni fursa ya kufanya manunuzi.

Yes, sio kila support huashiria nafasi ya kufanya manunuzi, traders wengi wamekuwa wakipanic wakiona support kwa kuamini watapitwa na fursa lakini ukiangalia timeframe za kuanzia h4 kushuka chini support levels huvunjwa kila muda na sababu ni weak levels. Kwenye trade hii (angalia picha ya chart juu) utaona kulikuwa na support level ambayo watu wengi walidhani soko litageuka pale lakini strategy yangu ilinionyesha this is a weak level na ni fursa nzuri ya kucapture break out, so according to the plan ilikuwa a selling opportunity.

This is a different approach from every other trader and it is okay to be different hata kama uko peke yako.

Kuwa na imani dhabiti na strategy yako.

Unaweza kuona kwamba kama imani yangu ingekuwa nyepesi juu ya strategy yangu basi ingekuwa rahisi sana kuisaliti. Uzuri wa Forex trading ni kwamba ukisaliti plan/strategy yako lazima upate majibu hapo hapo. Sasa nafahamu kuna mtu ataniuiliza je nawezaje kujenga imani dhabiti na strategy yangu? Jibu ni rahisi sana, fanya back-testing na hakikisha una data sahihi, kwa kufanya hivi lazima ujenge imani. Kama nisingekuwa na backtested data ingelikuwa rahisi sana kufanya usaliti kwa sababu sijui uwezo wa strategy yangu, hiki ndicho kinawaponza sana new traders.

Trader anasoma vizuri lakini anaona uvivu kukesha kwenye chart kufanya back-testing hivyo hafahamu strategy ina mapungufu na uwezo gani ni rahisi sana kuyumba akikutana na guru mwenye kutoa maoni yake juu ya pair fulani. Kibaya zaidi akipata hasara ana tegemea ile strategy aliyosaliti ilete faida, hicho kitu hakiwezekani.

Comment hapo chini umewahi kuisaliti strategy yako mara ngapi?

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Ni follow kwenye Mtandao wa Piptwitz.com Kama @ray_heriel, Huwa na share tips mbali mbali kuhusu trading kila siku.

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Goodnardo Elioth Jr
Goodnardo Elioth Jr
3 months ago

More than 100 times

Goodnardo Elioth Jr
Goodnardo Elioth Jr
3 months ago

Sawa Brethren Ray leo umeongea where i failed to know….

Ramadhani
Ramadhani
2 months ago

Yes, sure broooh dah!!! Hiyo pair hiyo mm strategy yangu ya wave principle iliniambia hiyo bado inashuka chini kumalizia Mambo flani ivi. Instagram nimeona watu wengi tu wanasema Ina BUY! sikuwa na Cha kufanya kabisa!!! nikasema let me stay away and watch!! wapo matrader wengine wa hapa bongo wanatuma na screenshot kabisa wame BUY!!! Tena lot kubwaa na Ile tabia ya entry nyingiiii na clear SL below the reach. Kilichowakuta m sikuwepo hahaaaa. Nimejifunza Sana bro niamin strategy yangu, kwani Sasa USDCAD imeshuka Sana & This Monday imefika almost nilikokuwa nataka Mimi Lol!!!. Learned something Braahh!!!

Last edited 2 months ago by Ramadhani
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